Pitcher Mitch Keller being overlooked in fantasy baseball

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There are a lot of things in the world that confuse, and often infuriate, Roto Rage. Here’s a quick top five:

  • TikTok challenges, like NyQuil chicken, DIY vampire fangs or people filming themselves eating oranges in the shower.
  • Unnecessary movie sequels, like “Coming 2 America,” “Speed 2,” “Son of the Mask” or “Kindergarten Cop 2,” starring Dolph Lundgren (no comment as to whether I’ve seen it).
  • Potato milk. (We’re just going to make milk out of everything, huh?)
  • Tie between IKEA furniture instructions and Ben Affleck.
  • Pittsburgh right-hander Mitch Keller not being rostered in more than 44.7 percent of ESPN leagues (62 percent at Yahoo).

    • After allowing four earned runs and walking four in his first start, Keller has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of his six starts since. He is 3-1 with a 2.75 ERA, 40-9 strikeout-walk rate, .225 opponents’ average and a 10 percent swinging-strike rate in that span. He has also struck out at least seven batters in five of his seven starts, and had just as many quality starts.

    Among qualified pitchers, Keller ranks 14th in strikeouts per nine innings (10.62, sixth-best in the NL) and 30th in ERA (3.32, 22nd in the NL). His .228 opponents’ average ranked 14th in the National League and his 1.20 WHIP was the 18th-best mark.

    Keller’s swinging-strike rate (10 percent) was in the top 40 (he was No. 40) entering Friday, and he has had some impressive swing-and-miss performances, including a 13 percent rate over his past two outings, against the Dodgers and Rays. He struck out 18 and walked two while allowing three earned runs and a .222 opponents’ average in those starts.

    Pirates pitcher Mitch Keller has been a consistent option this season, compiling a 3-1 record with 2.75 ERA. AP

    Keller’s 7.6 percent walk rate was not only a career low, but it was among the 20 best in the NL and top 50 in the majors. He also is limiting hard contact, with his hard-hit rate ranking in the top 6 percent of the league.

    The 27-year-old has done all this by relying more on his secondary pitches. Though opponents are hitting .174 with a 27.8 percent whiff rate and 13.8 percent swinging-strike rate against his fastball, batters are also struggling against his cutter (the newest pitch in his arsenal). Opponents have hit .179 with a 27.5 percent whiff rate and 13.3 percent swinging-strike rate against the cutter. They also are hitting .231 versus his curve and .214, with a 27.7 percent whiff rate, against his sweeper.

    The fact Keller’s expected ERA (3.52), FIP (3.31) and xFIP (3.58) are all within 20 points of his actual ERA is a great sign for where he is headed this year (as is the fact the Pirates owned the second-best record in the NL entering the weekend). Fantasy managers should be taking notice of that.

    Other pitchers who deserve to be rostered in more leagues:

    Eduardo Rodriguez (64 percent rostered) has allowed two earned runs over his past five starts for Detroit while going 3-0 with a 0.52 ERA. During this impressive stretch, he has had a 33-4 strikeout-walk rate, .157 opponents’ average and 11 percent swinging-strike rate. From April through Thursday, the lefty had the best ERA in the majors, as well as the seventh-lowest walk rate (1.04 per nine) and the fourth-lowest opponents average.

    Rays pitcher Zach Eflin threw seven shutout innings Thursday against the Pirates. Getty Images

    Roto Rage is once again going to go to bat for Tampa Bay’s Zach Eflin, who is rostered in just 36.5 percent of ESPN leagues, because the righty is more than just a streaming option. In his first three starts off the injured list, he is 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA, 19-2 strikeout-walk rate, .197 opponents’ average and 12 percent swinging-strike rate. That includes striking out 10 over seven shutout innings Thursday against Pittsburgh.

    Two guys to keep an eye on, who are rostered in fewer than 15 percent of ESPN leagues include Seattle’s Bryce Miller (12 percent), who struck out 10 in his big league debut (it was against Oakland, so see how he does against actual competition), and Washington’s Josiah Gray (12.9 percent), who had a 1.57 ERA and .219 opponents’ average in his past five starts before taking the mound Friday and has a favorable schedule over his next five or so starts.

    Big Hits

    Christian Walker 1B, Diamondbacks

    Hit .163 over his first 13 games this season, but hit .344 with five homers, 18 RBIs, 13 runs, a stolen bases and 1.055 OPS in his previous 16 games before Friday. Had four homers and 10 RBIs in his past five games.

    Joe Ryan SP, Twins

    Allowed more than one earned run in two of his six starts while going 5-0 with a 2.37 ERA, 10.2 strikeouts per nine and 4.2 percent walk rate.

    Vinnie Pasquantino had at least one hit in 12 of 15 games entering Friday. AP

    Vinnie Pasquantino 1B, Royals

    Had at least one hit in 12 of his previous 15 games before Friday, going 20-for-63 (.318) with three homers, nine RBIs, eight runs and a .923 OPS.

    Logan Webb SP, Giants

    Went 0-4 with a 4.94 ERA in his first four starts, but is 2-1 with a 2.53 ERA, 20-4 strikeout-walk rate and .221 opponents’ average over his past three.

    Big Whiffs

    Teoscar Hernandez OF, Mariners

    Five hits in 40 at-bats (.125) in 10 games between April 16 and Thursday. He struck out 20 times, walked once and owned a .167 OBP in that span.

    Taijuan Walker SP, Phillies

    Opponents are hitting .316 with six homers and a 1.057 OPS against him over his past three starts. Five of those homers came in the past two games, in which he allowed 13 earned runs and a .371 opponents’ average.

    Taijuan Walker has allowed opponents to hit .316 against him. USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

    Eugenio Suarez 3B, Mariners

    Struck out 19 times in his past 16 games before Friday, going 10-for-57 (.175) with one homer, five RBIs and a .554 OPS.

    Jon Gray SP, Rangers

    After picking up his only win on April 9, he is 0-0 with a 5.30 ERA, three homers allowed, 8-9 strikeout-walk rate and .279 opponents’ average.

    Check Swings

    • Boston’s Masataka Yoshida entered the weekend with a 14-game hit streak — going 25-for-56 (.446) with five homers, 18 RBIs, 13 runs and a 1.288 OPS. He hit .529 with eight RBIs in his first four games this month.
    • The oft-injured and often streaky Byron Buxton also has been hot, carrying an eight-game hit streak into the weekend for Minnesota. He went 10-for-29 (.345) with five homers, 11 RBIs, two stolen bases and a 1.472 OPS in that stretch. He also walked seven times and had a .472 OBP.
    • Former Met Jacob deGrom, who is 2-0 with a 2.67 ERA (1.88 xERA, 1.65 FIP), 13.35 strikeouts per nine and 20.4 percent swinging strike rate for Texas, landed on the IL this week. In other surprising news, soap tastes bad.
    • Ronald Acuña entered the weekend leading the league in stolen bases with 15. Tied for the second most, with 13, was Pittsburgh’s Ji Hwan Bae, who was hitting .375 with eight stolen bases in his previous nine games.
    • Atlanta’s Ozzie Albies has driven in 20 runs over his past 18 games while hitting .348 with seven homers, 11 runs scored and a 1.183 OPS.
    • Not only did the Dodgers’ Freddie Freeman hit .348 with a .991 OPS in his past 11 games before Friday, but he also stole three bases (all since April 29) in that span.

    Team Name of the Week

    E.T. Phone Bohm

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